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De ce cade Iohannis în sondaje și cum poate câștiga PNL Primăria Capitalei - de Gabriel Bejan

02 04 2016 22:33
Chiar dacă cea mai tare știre din sondajul ARC-CURS de astăzi pare a fi cea referitoare la scăderea abruptă a președintelui în încrederea bucureștenilor, există și alte lucruri importante demne de reținut. Să le luăm pe rând. Într-adevăr, faptul că, la un an și trei luni de la alegeri, Klaus Iohannis și-a pierdut o mare parte din susținători în cel mai mare bazin electoral al țării, Bucureștiul, poate părea surprinzător. Fostul primar al Sibiului a obținut în București la alegerile din 2014 57,5%, iar astăzi, doar 27% din locuitorii Capitalei mai sunt de acord cu ceea ce face președintele. Nu sunt multe de spus aici. Președintele este sancționat de alegători mai degrabă pentru absența marilor decizii, decât pentru deciziile greșite. Numirea lui Dacian Cioloș la Guvern s-a numărat printre puținele lucruri bune făcute de președinte și ar fi trebuit să acopere exact locul lăsat liber de Klaus Iohannis în fruntea mesei la care se hotărăște mersul țării. Nu s-a întâmplat așa, deși premierul a arătat că e dispus să joace rolul de ”doi într-unul”, asta pentru că probabil are planuri serioase pentru viitoarea sa carieră politică. Nu știm încă dacă Iohannis mai are vreun plan politic după terminarea acestui mandat. Un alt lucru care mi se pare important în sondajul SAR-CURS este poziționarea principalelor partide pentru alegerile locale din București. În acest moment, PSD este cotat cu 35% în intențiile de vot, în timp ce PNL are 26%, o diferență care, coroborată cu imaginea uzată a candidatului Ludovic Orban, ar trebui să fie liniștitoare pentru partidul lui Liviu Dragnea, ce are acum toate șansele să o facă pe Gabriela Firea Primar General. Partidul lui Nicușor Dan, USB este cotat al treilea, cu 11% și aici avem și explicația pentru care toate tunurile liberalilor sunt acum îndreptate, nu împotriva PSD, ci a lui Nicușor Dan pentru a-l convinge să se retragă. Numai că niciodată 26% plus 11% în sondaje nu au făcut 37% la alegeri și mai degrabă cred că o parte a electoratului liberal ar putea fi scârbit de această strategie și s-ar putea reorienta spre candidatul cotat cu șansa a treia. În orice caz, liberalii par condamnați să piardă competiția de anul acesta pentru Primăria Capitalei, asta dacă nu decid ei să susțină candidatul USB, lucru care i-ar scoate, cel puțin pentru moment, din cheia ”PSD, PNL, aceeași mizerie” în care este judecată acum administrația Bucureștiului. Am mai spus-o și cu altă ocazie, când tu l-ai dat ca primar al sectorului 6 pe unul ca Rareș Mănescu, nu mai poți cere bucureștenilor un vot politic anti-PSD. Ar mai fi de remarcat aici și scăderea puternică a partidului Monicăi Macovei, care acum este cotat cu doar 3,8 %, dovedind astfel că decizia lui Nicușor Dan de a nu se alia cu M10 înainte de alegeri poate fi înțeleaptă. Al treilea lucru pe care l-aș remarca aici este cel legat de răspunsurile celor intervievați la întrebarea dacă se consideră apropiați de o ideologie politică. Nu mai puțin de 57% au răspuns că nu au sau nu are importanță orientarea politică, 21 % s-au declarat de stânga și 18% de dreapta, ceea ce ne arată că oamenii votează ideologic într-o mică măsură, atât la locale cât și la generale. De aici, cu atât mai aberantă pare obstinația liberalilor de a chema oamenii să voteze cu ”dreapta” la Primăria Capitalei, în condițiile în care, iată, ideologia politică valorează atât de puțin. Și, fie vorba între noi, nici nu ar avea cum să fie altfel când cele două mari partide, PNL și PSD au dansat politic în toate stilurile posibile numai respectând pașii de stânga, respectiv de dreapta, nu. Și, în fine, a patra observație este cea legată de percepția asupra corupției, după ultimele alegeri prezidențiale. 41% din cei chestionați spun că aceasta a rămas la fel, 43% că a crescut și doar 12% că a scăzut. Un lucru bun este acela că lupta împotriva corupției nu este legată în opinia oamenilor de mandatul unui președinte, pe de altă parte nu poți să nu observi că, în ciuda ”numărului impresionant de demnitari arestați” (așa cum a declarat recent Laura Codruța Kovesi) și a activității lăudabile a DNA, oamenii nu percep o scădere reală a acestei probleme în societate. Asta pentru că sistemul care a făcut posibilă corupția- birocrația, lipsa de transparență în deciziile instituțiilor publice, mica ”ciupeal㔠a funcționarilor- nu s-a îmbunătățit semnificativ în ultima perioadă. Adică degeaba arestăm funcționari și demnitari pe bandă rulantă, dacă cei care vin în loc sunt din același aluat sau dacă nu se îmbunătățesc și legislația și procedurile de achiziții publice și cultura noastră în ceea ce privește relația cu statul. Posted on 30.03 2016 in Editorial, Header, Homepage with 10 Comments

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